It’s not easy to keep your mental toughness and heart in these spots. I write often about understanding that it’s all one long game, that you just play your best and don’t worry about the results because they’ll come over time, that the cards have no memory and each new hand starts a new universe of trials. Even knowing that, sometimes it’s just disheartening. You play your best game, stay focused, make good decisions – and watch your stack shrink. It can wear on you.

I wanted to put a little something together before I headed out of the cardroom to meet some real estate clients, something that would uplift me and put me in a positive frame of mind. You can’t always control these things, but one can hope. I figured I had another half hour before the day-shift grinders began to replace the graveyard gamblers.

I looked down in the small blind to see the 8-7 of hearts. About the only pot I had won so far during this sit was when I had made a back door straight with an 8-7 of hearts. I drew to a flush and caught two runners to fill my straight – a lucky break but one of my outs. Seeing the hand again gave me a little emotional jolt, reminded me that I had won at least one big pot in the course of the evening. Maybe the poker gods would smile on me again.

A player opened the pot, another called, the next player raised and the next player re-raised, another player called the three bets cold. It folded around to me. Five players in and the big blind was a loose player who was highly likely to call. Nobody with chips already committed to the pot was going to fold in this shoot-out. I suspected the pot would be capped off behind me, either by a premium hand or just for the gamble of it.

Overall I’m not a big fan of medium suited connectors. I think most players and many poker theorists overvalue them. Many flops which look like they hit you are co-ordinated and in fact present as much or more potential for your opponents. I like to get in cheaply with this kind of holding, preferably with position and a big field. With a hand of that texture fewer good flops are available than to a hand like A-K, so I like to be getting as large a price from the pot as I can. I don’t mean that the pot has to be large at the point of the pre-flop call, but rather that the odds the pot is offering me need to be extensive. By getting in cheaply with many players in the pot and position I am prone to win a big pot if I connect solidly with my hand.

That wasn’t the case here. There were a lot of players in this pot but I wasn’t getting in cheaply. I’d be first to act on all subsequent betting rounds. It was $70 to me and the price was likely to rise. On the upside, none of the players in this pot played well. I felt there was a good chance that someone held an overpair and I would have to hit my hand twice to win. Winning by bluffing couldn’t happen in this game. But, if I got lucky and hit this hand soundly I could acquire a lot of bets in the future betting rounds.

Knowing it was marginal but emotionally and analytically committed, I called. To my surprise the big blind folded and to my delight the rest of the field called with no more pre-flop raising.

The flop came J, 8, 7 with two diamonds. I had flopped bottom two pair, yet the flop contained many perils. Any 9 or 10 would likely fill a straight, a running pair or a Jack would cause my hand to be beaten by an overpair and any Diamond would fill a flush draw. And it was possible that somebody else had made a big hand as well. Still, this was a favorable flop to my hand. I had two options: leading or checkraising.

Often I would checkraise in a situation such as this in an effort to eliminate players. But nobody with even the tiniest piece of the flop was bailing on this pot. I felt my best play was to charge them as much as possible to lower the price they were receiving and to give myself the best odds possible. I led into the likely overpairs expecting to get raised and was not disappointed. The two players in-between the first pre-flop raiser and me called. The raiser hit it again. The next two players cold-called the two bets. I figured that if the initial raiser held an overpair that he would four-bet the pot. He was a fast action player and aggression was just in his nature. I re-raised and got four-bet, as I’d anticipated. I elected not to cap the flop so that my aggressive opponent would feel confident he held the best hand, and to give me the chance to see the turn card before committing further. I felt that I had the best hand, but my situation was still perilous. I needed a good card on the turn. If I caught one then I could check-raise the overpair and maybe drive out some draws for a cold $120.Even if I didn’t at least I’d charge them a steep price. If they got there, oh well, that’s just the nature of poker. I thought the pre-flop three-betting player who had just called all the flop bets was likely to have an A-K type hand and I didn’t mind him drawing at all since he was drawing dead. But I hoped to drive out the two players between the likely overpair and myself since the pot was large and my hand was vulnerable. By checkraising the turn it was possible to trap in the player who was drawing dead and move out the players drawing live. Also a blank on the turn would increase the chance of my hand holding up and I would get the bets in as a bigger favorite than if I put in the last raise on the flop.

An offsuit 3 came on the turn; as good as it could get for my hand, without actually improving it. I checkraised the flop raiser and got two bets from four players, one being the player I thought had A-K. Neither of the two players between the overpair and me moved, though. An offsuit king hit on the end. I felt good about the king even though there was some chance it tripped the overpair or also could have made someone two better pair. There were a lot worse cards for my hand at this point. I fired sixty into the pot and was called in two spots. My hand was good! The player I thought had an overpair showed two Aces and muttered something about me being lucky, and my breeding coming from a canine background. I scooped in a monster pot smiling inside.

I did get lucky. Eight-seven of hearts is a big dog to beat two aces. But the price was right. And the price was made right by the fact that the players contesting the pot played so poorly. If the field had been top pros who would have given less action when I hit my hand, then I probably would have mucked pre-flop. It’s not just the hand you hold but the situation you hold it in. Anytime that you get into a pot with opponents who play poorly after the flop you can extend the price of your pre-flop bets. How much so depends on to what level you can outplay the opposition. A cautionary note in this regard: Most players I know significantly overestimate their edge against their opponents.

About 15 minutes later I picked up two kings and got out-flopped by an underpair which hit a set. We built up a big one and I sucked out on the river by hitting a king. Made a two outer! Once again the price was right with the pot being close to three thousand. I left the game winning $1800, a $4300 turnaround in about 30 minutes. A nice little rush for a $30-$60 game. And I did get lucky! I know it! I was a big dog to win either of those pots, but once again the price was right to draw.

If you keep taking the positive prices offered to you at the poker table you will win in the long run. Sometimes your opponents will get lucky. You will have streaks of bad luck. And when you do hit, as you sometimes must, people will moan and groan about how good you’re running, not understanding the sound mathematical underpinning of your decision-making. Note that I didn’t run so well getting stuck $2500 at the beginning of this sit.

If you keep taking the best of it over time then you will end up in the good. It’s that old favorite song of mine: The recurring sum of the volume you bet times the percentage edge you bet it at added into a recurring field will equal your expectation, which over time will match your results. And it’s only those long-term results which matter. Of course it’s much sweeter leaving $1800 front rather than $2500 stuck. But you already knew that.